Stock Analysis: AXREIT 5106 as of date 07th Nov 2017 (UTC+8:00)

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AXREIT 5106 BUY, SELL, or HOLD?

Today, I would like to introduce you all a stock that I have been follow for quite sometimes, and now it is the right time to go for it! As of writing, AXREIT is trade at RM 1.50 - 1.51.

AXREIT is a Malaysia REIT that claimed too be the first Islamic Business Space & Industrial REIT. To see their official website, click here. Regardless whether are they the first, but indeed they are large in their assets. Unlike some other REITs that focus on particular type of properties, for examples, CMMT focus on shopping mall, and ATRIUM focus on warehousing and logistics, AXREIT covers variety of properties' type which you can found from their website (see link). So what makes it great to invest now?

Variety of Properties' Type
As many will said, economic crisis is coming soon. 10 year cycle curse will arrive soon! I wonder will it comes but I do hope it does come. :)  So if it does come, shouldn't you wait? Let me ask this, do you confirm it comes? If you do, can you confirm when it comes? I believe none of you can tell, even the expert can't. So if you wait, you might end up missing the opportunity? Even economic crisis happend, with it variety of properties' type, I believe you will have time to restructure your buy in or exist plan, but of course you have to be aware of the market. What does it means you have time? This is because normally before a economic crisis actually burst, you will notice from a particular industry first. And properties is basically needed for all sort of industries. With that, AXREIT which is not focus on one, even it is affected, it will not sink immediately.

Relatively Low Price
For me, after knowing the potential of the company, its price always matter. After it has split in 4th of Sept 2015, its share price is mainly around RM 1.70 - 1.80. So now, without any particular news, its share has been dropping which sit around RM 1.50 now. I believe this is the right price to buy.

Great Dividend with Current Price
Moreover, good thing about REIT stock is that it paid regular dividend to shareholder. With the price of RM 1.50, you will able to get more than 5% per annual of dividend before tax. This is higher than any Fix Deposit you can get from the current market.

Working with AME Group for New Development
AME is contractor that provide construction services. AXREIT has been working with AME to develop various industrial park, such as iPark which is a great success. With this co-development, AXREIT able to maximize the capital deploy by ensure the best services on construction and marketing for their newly developed properties.


So, think about it, whether this stock which I highly recommend to buy now, worth to add to your portfolio. It should suit all short, medium, and long term investor.


My defination of Short, Medium, and Long term investor as below.
Short Term: 3 years and below
Medium Term: 3 to 6 years
Long Term: 6 years and above

Please be reminded that above is just a recommendation, digested the info and make your own decision. Good Luck!

Stock Analysis: AIRASIA 5099 as of date 07th Nov 2017 (UTC+8:00)

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AIRASIA 5099 BUY, SELL, or HOLD?

It has been a while since I shared about AirAisa. As of writing, the share price of AirAsia is traded at RM 3.22 - 3.23. I believe for those who still holding those share must be extremely happy seeing the price not only shoot back RM 3 but more than that. Congratulation! As for now, I don't think is good for short term investor to get into this stock anymore. Therefore, let's us look the latest news about AirAsia so far and see how is it for medium/long term investor.

Fly Business Expanding

Recently, there are quite some positive news about AirAsia expanding their fly business. (See Link1 Link2) Once all these are locked down, I believe it will helps to generate more income that benefits the investors.

CEO's Resignation of the Competitor

Peter Bellow is moving away (See Link)from MARS will caused MARS has to re-elect new leader to wheel the company. Will the company direction the same or not? Regardless same or not, it will definitely prolong the time for MARS to regain its glory. So, I believe AirAsia will remain at its top in Malaysia fly business for even longer until threats to come.

Therefore, looking at current market, AirAsia do not see any major rivals in Malaysia and their business planning for more routes to services their customers better will definitely benefits the investors one way or another.

So, medium / long term investor, HOLD your share!! :)

My defination of Short, Medium, and Long term investor as below.
Short Term: 3 years and below
Medium Term: 3 to 6 years
Long Term: 6 years and above

 Please be reminded that above is just a recommandation, digested the info and make your own decision. Good Luck!

Your Answer 17th Mar 2017

Question by

Unknown12 March 2017 at 06:39

How about Earning /Share , ROE , OCF for Air Asia shares.?

Hi there, 

If you would like to have a quite glance on those important ratios, you may refer to MalaysiaBiz. But of course, the best source will be their official annual report (but some ratios, you might need additional effort to tabulate it). 

People normally perform Time Series Analysis and Cross Sectional Analysis by using those ratios. However, since AirAsia is the only airline share listed in Bursa (as far as I know), thus, I doubt that we able to perform any Cross Sectional Analysis. We can only perform Time Series Analysis. Since AR 2016 yet to release, I will compare those ratios for 2015 with 2014.

Ratios	AR 2015	AR 2014	Changes
EPS (diluted)	19.4 sen	3.0 sen	+546.67%
ROE	12.16%	1.82%	+568.13%
OCF	RM 2,203,938,000	RM 302,031,000	+629.71%
Operating Margin	33.62%	5.40%	+522.59%

I believe the OCF that you mentioned is referring to Operating Cash Flow. However, when talk about operating cash flow, people will look at the Operating Margin rather than Operating Cash Flow itself, because Opearting Margin apart from telling you that whether the company is earning from their main operating or not, it also tells you whether how much the portion of the revenue it generated is contributed by operating earning. If you would like to find out more about Operating Margin, read here.  

So back to the Ratios above, in fact you can see that all those ratios have increased significantly from year 2014 to 2015. However, please bear in mind, AirAsia is a big group where its financial statement is contributed by many subsidaries, thus, do not justify whether the company is a potential stock or not by solely looking at those ratios. You will hardly see the true potential, or sometimes seeing a fake potential.

Last but not least, just some sharing about what direction I am coming from for my stock analysis blog. So that, the stock investors that reading my blog know how it actually benefits you. From my blog you hardly see any figures because I am just sharing the potential of a stock via sentiment, rather than fundmental analysis or technical analysis which many people is doing. Sentiment is more like how people react to a particular share when the official business news are released. However, some news are not directly related or publish by the company itself, people tends to overlook the influence of these news. Thus, my blog actually compile most of the news that I come across, so that you can see how does these news affecting the moving of the share of a particular company. 

Normally for me, after sentiment analysis, only I will go into fundamental analysis to further firm my buying or selling decision of that company. And through technical analysis, I justify when to buy and sell to maximize my gain.

Hope these info does helps you!  See you around, Mr. Unknown (virtually :) )

  

Stock Analysis: AIRASIA 5099 as of date 10th Mar 2017 (UTC+8:00)

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AIRASIA 5099 BUY, SELL, or HOLD?

Surprisingly, AirAsia share price has rise significantly close to RM 3.00 this year, way faster than what I predict to be happend in 3 years time. Unfortunately, I have disposed my share around RM 2.60 and aiming for other more potential share, but I do not regret that because one thing that we should keep in our mind. Greedy is the biggest enemy in stock market. Never chase after the maximum profit, because you might end up with loss.

Well, back to the stock. So why is it rising this significantly?

• Market is motivated by the news that AirAisa is in the mid of disposing their aircraft leasing unit, Asia Aviation Capital Ltd, where the earning will be return to the investor as dividend this year (predicted by CIMB Research, see link).

• More important, this is even strengthen by the action of their shareholder personal share buyback (see AirAsia Bursa Annoucement on 1st Mar 2017). 

So, is it time to BUY, SELL, or HOLD for AirAsia? The actions to be taken by short, medium, and long term investor is different as below.

Short Term Investor
People who invested: SELL at range RM 2.80 - RM 3.00
Why: Due to the catalyst news above, that's why AirAsia price rise significant. I believe this bullish trend will soon cool down and lead to slightly price drop.
People who yet to invest: CLOSE CASE, do not aim AirAsia at the moment
Why: AirAsia does not pay out constant dividend, therefore, for short term investor, you will be aiming for capital gain. And now, I see lack of potential for capital gain in short term. 

Medium / Long Term Investor 
People who invested: HOLD
Why: I still see AirAsia as potential company in at least 6 years time from now. Therefore, as a medium or long term investor, you can always hold the share and enjoy the shareholder benefits if the company is making money. 
People who yet to invest: BUY only if the price drop around RM 2.60
Why: Although medium or long term investor is aiming to earn via shareholder benefits. However, you also hope that the capital you invested doesn't shrink. Therefore, for the sake of capital protection, it still safer for you to enter at RM 2.60, unless you are risk taker.

My defination of Short, Medium, and Long term investor as below.

• Short Term: 3 years and below
• Medium Term: 3 to 6 years 
• Long Term: 6 years and above

Please be reminded that above is just a recommandation, digested the info and make your own decision. Good Luck!

Stock Analysis: AIRASIA 5099 as of date 17th Jan 2017 (UTC+8:00)

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AIRASIA 5099 BUY, SELL, or HOLD?

From mid of Dec 2016 until mid of Jan 2017, AirAsia has hit its lowest around RM 2.18. The main factor of the price drop I believe to be the action of injecting capital into AirAisa Indonesia (see link). This raise the investors' concern on the financial stability of the company. 

Due to this factor, the market has some fluactuation, what is the action to be taken? 

Again, I like to differentiate it into short/medium term investment and long term investment. However, the recommandations below are just a guideline, always do your analysis before perform any transaction.
  
RECOMMANDATION
Short & Medium Term Investor
Based on my recommandation on 13th Nov 2016. I advised that sell it at RM 2.80 if possible, or else cut loss at RM 2.30, where the price is sitting around RM 2.50 that time. As of the time I am writing, the price is now around RM 2.50 too.

If you do sell at my recommanded mininum of RM 2.30, and buy back at RM 2.20 (around the lowest it hitted before), by now you should earn around 20%.

• For those who still hold it, my recommandation is sell it around RM 2.50.
• For those who yet to bought, buy it at the price not higher than RM 2.20.

Long Term Investor
Whereas for long term investor, my recommandation remain the same, except now you can adjust your target buy in price from RM 2.50 to RM 2.30. 

If you bought AirAsia at the price below RM 1.50, keep holding it because I believe it is hard to have the chance to invest again at that great price.

• For those who bought, hold it.
• For those who yet to bought, buy it at the price not higher than RM 2.30.

My defination of Short, Medium, and Long term investor as below.

• Short Term: 3 years and below
• Medium Term: 3 to 6 years 
• Long Term: 6 years and above

I am individual trader that looking forward to make friends who share the same interests, you can always drop me an email via angs.investment@gmail.com if you have any ideas would like to share with. 

Last but not least, I wish you all a HAPPY AND PROPERIOUS CHINESE NEW YEAR ! HAPPY TRADING !

 Please be reminded that above is just a recommandation, digested the info and make your own decision. Good Luck!

Stock Analysis: AIRASIA 5099 as of date 13th Nov 2016 (UTC+8:00)

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AIRASIA 5099 BUY, SELL, or HOLD?

STRENGTHS

Lead by a capable leader, Tony Fernando with great mindset
A company need a great management team. And a great management team need a capable leader. I believe Tony Fernando who been ranked as one of the most influential people in the world (see link), can continue to bring AirAsia to next level.

Being largest Low Cost Carrier Asia for 13 years
No matter what are the risks that I am sharing below, do not forget that AirAsia has been a Low Cost Carrier in Asia for more than 10 years. This business preposition will not be easily replaced by others, especially with a great leader as Tony Fernando. Nevertheless, Tony definitely will have to come out with a greater plan and direction to keep their advantage in market in the future.

RISKS 

MARS will rise as local competitor
Malaysia Airlines (MARS) has experienced a serious crisis back in year 2014 caused them delisted from Bursa Malaysia Main Board and undergo restructuring. This year 2016, you able to start seeing news from MARS, where they start to gain market share (see link). I believe soon, AirAsia market share will be diluted by MARS. Even not soon, but definitely will.

America Airline will be potential global competitor
Warren Buffet, which is well know as the god of investment has recently invested in America Airline, which are American Airlines, Delta Airlines, and United Continential Holding Inc (see link). This will give a great boost to airline business and dilute AirAsia's market share in West. People might think, well, AirAsia is strong in Low Cost Carrier, not a direct competitor. But do not forget, now America has their own oil producing capability, which will give a great advantage to their native airline business, as the fuel is the most important operating cost. This means America Airlines will able to provide great services with more competitve price to their customers.

Airasia earning will be affected by petrol price hike
Tony Fernando himself did said that fuel is the most important operating cost to airline business. As the OPEC and many non-OPEC players are starting to cut down their production amount, the oil price has the trend of increasing (see link). This will definitely affect the earning margin of AirAsia in near future.


RECOMMANDATION

Short & Medium Term Investor
Overall, I find that AirAsia is still a great potential stock, just that, by looking at the current market, I believe RM 3.00 is the top it can goes now. So to maximize your profit, my recommandation will be sell it and enter again when the opportunity come. 

• For those who bought, sell it at RM 2.80 if possible. Otherwise, sell it if the price drop below RM 2.30.
• For those who yet to bought, do not buy right now.  

Long Term Investor
If you bought AirAsia at the price below RM 1.50, keep holding it because I believe it is hard to have the chance to invest again at that great price. 

• For those who bought, hold it.
• For those who yet to bought, buy it at the price not higher than RM 2.50.

My defination of Short, Medium, and Long term investor as below.

• Short Term: 3 years and below
• Medium Term: 3 to 6 years 
• Long Term: 6 years and above

Please be reminded that above is just a recommandation, digested the info and make your own decision. Good Luck!

Which should I invest? Stock or Mutual Fund?

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There are so many investment channels in the world, such as stock, property, and mutual fund. And this blog is going to give you a deep look whether to invest in stock compare to mutual fund. So what is the differences between stock and mutual fund?

1. Direct / Indirect Purchase of Company Share
I believe all of you do know that buying stock means that you are buying the shares of the listed company. So do the Mutual Fund, just that you are buying those shares indirectly though the Fund Manager. In other word, you are not in direct control of which shares been bought if you are investing in Mutual Fund.

2. The Return
Generally, Stock will has higher return compare to Mutual Fund. A simple common sense, if you having a Fund Manager managing the fund for you without having you paying their salary, where do you thinking their salary come from? E.g. If you buy Share A via Stock, it can give you a return of 10% per annual, but via Mutual Fund, it maybe give you only 6-8% of return per annual. The 2-4% lesser is actually the salary of Fund Manager or any expenses for the Mutual Fund organization.

3. The Risk
Generally, Stock will has higher risk compare to Mutual Fund, especially for those investors with limited fund. Why? E.g. if you have fund of RM 5,000, perhaps you can only inveset in Share A. Whereas, for Mutual Fund where it collected RM 5,000 for 10 investors, it will has RM 50,000 that allowed them to invest in Share A, B, and C. If Share A is making a loss, with Stock you will be lossing money already, but not with Mutual Fund because Share B and C might be earning for you.

4. Invesetment Duration
I do come across some people around me said that Mutual Fund is a waste of money, don't invest in it. Well. I disagree that. It is because they are not well educated with the right knowledge, and they often compare it to Fixed Deposit. Generally, Mutual Fund has a long investment cycle (typically 5 years and above) for you to see the return. This means that within 5 years or more you must not withdraw the fund, or else you will end up make a loss or just breakeven. Whereas, stock can be long term or short term depends on the market situation when you enter the game and what kind of share you are investing.

5. Time & Efforts to be spend
People often said that buying Mutual Fund is good because you do not need to spend so much time study/analyse the stock since the Fund Manager does for you. Indeed, however, there are many Mutual Funds out there, instead of analysing the stock, in fact you need to take times to study/analyse which Mutual Fund is trusthworth and give you great return. So in short, I will said, you need to spare your time to do some research no matter which you are investing (just that you are researching the different things). NOTHING IS FREE!

Figure 1: Differences between Stock and Mutual Fund Summary

So think about it, do you really want to invest in stock if you are yet to enter the market. No matter what is your choice. Always remember, investment is not magic. It takes time and efforts before you start making profits. Just some personal advises, I will prefer go for Stock instead of Mutual Fund, but choice is yours!

If you decided to go for stock investment below are some good links for your to read up. You can always Google up for more.

10 Questions to Ask Before You Buy a Stock
https://www.thestreet.com/story/10139093/1/10-things-you-should-know-before-you-buy-a-stock.html